The world is looking forward to the COVID-19 vaccine and the news conveyed by vaccine experts seem to offer hope to that expectation.
It is now known that it is impossible to fully contain the pandemic virus despite lockdown measures announced in several countries including India. Apart from prolonged negative impact, the virus has now mutated and is expected to cause even more damage. Three new mutations have been discovered in recent weeks and health officials have statues that the new variant found in the U.K. could be 70 percent more infectious. Even as the COVID-19 vaccine is being rolled out, scientists are studying how the new virus strains react to the vaccine, whether it is vaccine-resistant, and its long-term impact on infection spread. France, Nigeria, South Africa, and Japan have also confirmed new mutations of the virus.
The only way to overcome this is to accept the new normal that COVID-19 has imposed upon us. The vaccine then becomes an even brighter of hope for humans. The world expects to return to normal once the vaccine is rolled out globally and is administered to a majority. We are awaiting a vaccine with impatience.
How effective will the vaccine be and for how long will it protect us? Who will get vaccinated first? What is the best way to distribute it? These and similar questions continue to be raised.
The economics of the vaccine
Another important question is also being raised. What will the COVID-19 vaccine cost?
This question will decide whether everyone will get the vaccine and how quickly they will get it. It also helps us appreciate the dynamics and broader economy behind the production of the vaccine. Exploring and scrutinizing this question will also help us understand medical and scientific nuances of the vaccine easily.
Major pharmaceutical giants operate on profit-based motives. They function based on the profits they make by discovering new medications.
While this applies to the discovery of the COVID-19 vaccine too, it is not based on profits alone.
The science and economics of vaccines are complicated.
In general, the cost of a vaccine is determined based on the cost accrued in the process of its discovery. Above and beyond that, the cost placed to make profits on the vaccine by the pharmaceutical company that discovered it will dictate its final cost. However, this does not happen easily in real life.
First, the possibility of failure is far more than the possibility of success in vaccine discoveries. Therefore, a successful vaccine’s cost must also include the cost of all the failed efforts preceding it.
This is the prime reasons for the complications that arise in vaccine discovery and executing its production.
Although the basic premise of a vaccine is to trigger the body’s immunity against any virulent attack, implementation is not easy: Several methodologies are followed to extract part of a disease-causing pathogen (bacteria or virus) and create a vaccine. These include using dead pathogens or also using genetic methods.
An appropriate method based on the structure of the disease-causing virus needs to be selected. Scientists need to confirm that the vaccine is not only effective but also safe to use on humans.
Overall, it is said that it takes ten to fifteen years to develop a vaccine. Drug control authorities permit a vaccine only after several steps happen including research, medical studies, and tests. This could take several years.
$ 500 million?
It is here that the economics of vaccine production begins. It would indeed be beneficial to discover vaccines for all diseases.
In fact, vaccines are considered the best way to control diseases. Since the first vaccine was discovered more than a century back, diseases including measles, small pox and polio were eradicated with the help of vaccines. WHO statistics state that 2 to 3 million human lives are saved every year because of vaccines. WHO also informs us that a further 1.5 million lives can be saved if vaccines are more widely administered.
Although the field of medicine understands the importance of vaccines, it is not possible to discover vaccines at the desired pace.
Since several years need to be spent on research and tests, crores need to be spent on vaccine production.
Although there is no set figure for producing a vaccine, one estimate suggests that this could cost 500 million US dollars. Another estimate says that it would take anything from 150 million US dollars to one billion US dollars for vaccine production.
However, these are all estimates and not confirmed expenses. This because pharmaceutical companies do not share vaccine production costs. Besides, there are also the hidden costs and distribution costs.
While the true cost of vaccine production is safeguarded, we can estimate that it might cost 100 crore US dollars at the most.
Before a pharmaceutical organization with the intention and resources starts researching a vaccine, it also needs to assess the need and market for it. The reality is that these two are entirely different issues.
The question of profitability
It also serves as a benchmark to pinpoint the economic inequality around the world. In general, it is the poor and third world countries that need vaccines the most. Since the population and governments in these countries have low purchasing power, it is not profitable to produce vaccines to prevent diseases in these populations. On the other hand, it is considered a good investment to produce vaccines for people in developing countries so that they can be sold at higher costs and get a good return on investment.
While medical research and vaccine discoveries should not be conducted in this way, this is the truth based on the economics of the system.
Fortunately, medical research and vaccine discoveries have not been left in the hands of profit-based organizations alone. Organizations and governments work hand in hand for the common good.
Social service organizations step forward to bear the burden of the vast investments required for vaccine research. Governments help by providing funds too. Federations and committees have been created for the express purpose of offering funds for vaccine research. Suggestions on publishing related documents are also put forth.
The WHO has listed key infections that could transform as pandemics in the future. In this situation, we can heave a sigh of relief that vaccine research is not in the hands of profit-based organizations alone.
The vaccine effort for the COVID-19 pandemic has unfolded in this background. Vaccine research and production have been fast forwarded in an unprecedented manner considering the impact of the virus and the ensuing lockdown of many countries, a first in the history of vaccines.
The scientific community scrambled to find a vaccine within a year, although the general time to develop one is said to be ten years.
While we recognize the need to speed up the process, we should also understand that this does not diminish the research methodology required for producing a vaccine. The usual processes and checks were followed as usual. However, they happened at a far quicker pace.
Instead of handling processes on after the other, tactics to handle many simultaneously were also undertaken. For instance, the production facility is established only after research is completed. Now, the production facility was established even while research was ongoing to ensure vaccine production as soon as permission was granted. If the vaccine fails, expenses towards production facilities would be a loss. However, this was done to mitigate the impact of COVID-19.
Huge investment by government
Another reason is that governments have invested crores in research. The U.S. government pledged millions of dollars in vaccine research through ‘Operation Warp Speed’ to accelerate development and distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Similarly, European countries too have encouraged research studies. Vaccine development efforts are happening in several countries including India.
There are, however, complications in government funding. Each country might prioritize its health and might seek precedence in vaccine sale and distribution. This is referred to as ‘vaccine nationalism.’ This could delay the availability of the vaccine in areas where it is needed most and in poor countries.
Setting ‘vaccine nationalism’ aside, medical experts have pointed out that the only way for the vaccine to be truly effective is to ensure its availability across the world.
Hence, it is critical to include these funding issues in the COVID-19 vaccine expenses or investment. These factors will also impact the cost of the vaccine. For instance, Americans have been promised this vaccine free of cost. The government and insurance companies will bear this cost.
Other countries may follow suit. At the same time, there has also been news that the COVID-19 vaccine may cost anything from a few dollars up to 30 dollars.
More than a hundred medical and pharmaceutical organizations including Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna have been involved in vaccine research and discovery across the world. Among these Pfizer and BioNTech have already rolled out their vaccine in the U.S. with the aim of ensuring every American receives this vaccine by June 2021. AstraZeneca, which is expected to have its vaccine approved by the U.K. this week, has announced that its vaccine is also effective against the new COVID-19 variant. Russia has expressed confidence in its Sputnik V vaccine, with Russian President Vladimir Putin poised to receive it very soon.
The race of producing a vaccine
Many organizations and research institutions have entered the arena to compete in the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. In general, this is a competition does not have a dinner. Since the first organization that discovers a vaccine has a great advantage, the others may stall behind and abandon the research. Many others may refuse to enter the arena because they fear the losses arising from this process.
Even here, the virus has created an extraordinary situation. Since a global vaccine is required to control infection spread, one vaccine will not suffice. It is therefore not only beneficial but also essential that more than one competitor emerges as the winner.
In the meantime, to speed up COVID-19 research, institutions and organizations have shared their data in public spaces. As a result, it is not imperative that only one entity can involve itself in COVID-19 vaccine research. This collaborative effort is also a reason for speeding up research.
Thervwefore, a COVID-19 vaccine has been possible even quicker than expected. More than one vaccine has also become possible. We can also expect distributors to work together to confirm that the world is facing this pandemic in a united way. We can also expect collaboration in distribution efforts. This collaboration will prove most beneficial to the earth and mankind!